The EU-US Energy Trade Agreement: The $250 Billion Target, Ambitious in Vision but Slim in Reality

2025/08/01

Recently, an energy trade agreement between the European Union and the United States has drawn global attention. It is reported that the EU has promised to spend $250 billion each year for the next three years on purchasing US energy products, covering areas such as oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and nuclear technology. At first glance, this commitment seems to inject a "shot in the arm" into the EU-US energy trade relationship. However, a deeper analysis reveals that this target faces numerous difficulties in reality and the likelihood of its realization is extremely slim—plagued by structural mismatches, logistical bottlenecks, and conflicting strategic priorities.

A Chasm Between Promise and Current Trade Volumes

The numbers alone tell a stark story. In 2024, total US energy exports worldwide reached

330billion,whiletheEU’simportsfromtheUSaccountedforjust

70 billion of that—barely 21% of America’s global energy sales. To hit $250 billion annually, the EU would need to quadruple its current imports from the US, a feat that would require redirecting nearly 75% of all US energy exports to Europe. This is not merely ambitious; it is logistically implausible.

Consider crude oil: The US currently supplies 16% of the EU’s crude needs, equivalent to roughly 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd). To meet the $250 billion target, this figure would need to surge to over 4 million bpd—more than double the total crude oil the US exports to all global markets combined (approximately 3.8 million bpd in 2024). Such a shift would devastate US energy relationships with other key partners, including Asian economies like South Korea and India, which rely heavily on American oil.

In the LNG sector, the math is equally daunting. The EU imported 140 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG in 2024, 45% of which came from the US—valued at around

35billionataverageannualprices.Toscalethisuptomeetthe

250 billion goal, the EU would need to import over 800 bcm of US LNG annually, a volume that dwarfs the entire global LNG trade (approximately 400 bcm in 2024). Even if every new US LNG export terminal currently under construction came online tomorrow—a process that takes 5–7 years—America’s total LNG export capacity would still fall short by nearly 50%.

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